ukraine cant win

Ukraine Cant Win - It is even worse in many circles to argue that Ukraine cannot hope to defeat the Russian army in the current war. If this assessment is correct, the clear outcome of the conflict is a negotiated settlement that would leave Russia in possession of the currently occupied territories in exchange for "peace". The loss of much of its eastern agricultural and industrial areas and most of its Black Sea coastline would make Ukraine an economically viable vassal state dependent on external support.

The desire for international aid and support for Ukraine is likely to diminish over time as the interest in sanctions against Russia diminishes. In this case, Ukraine will still have a chance to weaken its membership in the EU and NATO as well. Instead, Ukraine would inevitably fall into Russia's orbit. And "peace" would not follow. As Putin has repeatedly said, Russia has larger foreign policy goals that go far beyond Ukraine.

Ukraine Cant Win

It is certainly true, as it is, that Ukraine is unlikely to "win" if victory is defined as the return of all internationally recognized Ukrainian territory and a decisive victory for Russia on the ground.

As Russia Retreats In Ukraine, Putin Is Stuck: Unable To Win, Unwilling To Lose

Financial and security assistance from Western countries helped Ukraine inflict heavy losses on the Russian military in the air, sea and land. However, conscious Western policy decisions to withhold air power, self-propelled artillery, long-range precision fire and main tanks from Ukraine have had the desired effect. Without them, Ukraine cannot go on offensive operations and push out the attackers.

Almost certainly the Western countries have collectively decided not to "humiliate" Putin. With Latvia supplying Ukraine with more military equipment than France, Italy and Germany, the resolve of the major European powers is strongly emphasized.

However, the logic of this approach breaks down when there is a high probability of further Russian aggression in NATO territory. When this happens, there are many "missed opportunities" and "miscalculations" to deal with. The threat is much better faced now, with Russia reeling from high casualties, depleted high-tech munitions stocks, low morale, high command losses, and bad generals.

As the world follows Russia's invasion of Ukraine, UkraineAlert delivers the best Atlantic Council data and analysis on Ukraine twice a week straight to your email.

Emmanuel Macron: Russia Cannot, Should Not Win Ukraine War: Emmanuel Macron

A careful assessment suggests that Ukraine can win with necessary capabilities. In terms of manpower, President Zelenskyy may eventually deploy up to a million trained soldiers in the field, despite heavy losses so far. This is much more than Russia is likely to produce.

Almost the entire Russian army is committed to Ukraine, including units from the Far East and the exclave of Kaliningrad. Although often announced as "850,000 men", the Russian military in the field is much less than 300,000, with internal security forces (the Russian National Guard), border police and other organizations not fit for combat in Ukraine. . This force suffered painful losses that cannot be replaced by ill-trained conscripts and recalled reservists. Nor can Putin resort to full-scale mobilization without seriously endangering his regime. Over time, Ukraine's labor advantage will only grow.

In terms of equipment, Ukraine has good handguns, armor protection and drones, as well as anti-tank and air defense missiles. It has considerable armor and artillery power, good intelligence, and a well-maintained rail system that allows it to move troops and supplies along interior lines. However, most Ukrainian tanks lack thermal sights, GPS navigation, modern ammunition, and up-to-date armor, although most Ukrainian artillery is towed (and therefore vulnerable to Russian fire) and unprotected from small arms fire and shrapnel. Ukraine's tanks and artillery also outnumber the more modern and lethal Russian systems.

Meanwhile, the US maintains a large number of M1A1 main battle tanks and M109A6 155 mm self-propelled howitzers in the inventory after replacing them with upgraded versions. These exceed current requirements and can be restored to operational status and delivered to Ukraine relatively quickly. Although they are not the latest technology, they are more than a match for their Russian counterparts. Until now, Ukraine's fortitude, courage and resilience have enabled strong resistance. But that kind of grit has to be won.

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Nowhere is Ukraine's capability gap greater than in air force and long-range fires, where Russia has a clear superiority. Without a functional air force and a sufficient number of rocket artillery platforms, Ukraine cannot target Russian long-range systems that level entire cities in the east and allow incremental advances. The small number of HIMARS delivered so far has helped, but more are needed, as is the tracked version of the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS).

The Ukrainian Air Force fought heroically, but it can only fire 10-20 launches per day, only 10% of Russia's total. NATO allies and coalition partners have provided strong air support in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan, and could do so again without the need to deploy troops on the ground. At the very least, allowing Poland and other former Warsaw Pact states to transfer Soviet-era aircraft such as the MIG-29 and SU-25 to Ukraine was a significant change.

It takes time to deploy new equipment and train soldiers to use it, which makes counter-attacking a problem in 2022. However, the Ukrainian military has shown great adaptability and flexibility in using from the wide range of equipment now available. We can expect a determined defense until the end of the year. If trained and reequipped, the armed forces of Ukraine will be ready to go on the offensive in 2023. Their high morale, innovation, effective leadership and will surpass Russia's military victory.

Giving Ukraine the ability to attack requires Western leaders to answer existential questions. Do we want Putin to fail? Or are we threatened by the continuing and obvious threats, above all, of the use of nuclear weapons? At its most basic, the Russian doctrine of "escalation to de-escalation" is this: "If you don't let us invade and occupy our neighbors, we'll nuke you." With this logic, we cannot face Russian aggression anywhere.

The United States Speaks Clearly On Russia's Ukraine War

The United States and its British and French allies have successfully relied on nuclear deterrence for decades. This barrier remains intact and functional. Here we cannot give in to our fears. American and European leaders talk a lot about "preparing for a long war." With energy prices skyrocketing and a global food crisis looming, the world doesn't need it. We need a quick end to the conflict.

Since 1945, the West's record in preventing genocide and mass loss of innocent people has been poor. For both political and rational reasons, we stood by as hundreds of thousands died on the killing fields of Cambodia, Somalia, Rwanda, Sudan, the Balkans and Syria. It is now happening again that Russia is trying to suppress the democracy, independence and culture of Ukraine. There will be consequences if the Atlantic community once again chooses to stand aside. This time the conflict is not in our backyard. It will be at our front door.

In short, if the West takes active steps to ensure that Ukraine cannot win, it will not succeed. But if he commits to providing the capabilities needed for modern, high-intensity warfare, Ukraine can and will win. That victory will prevent Russian aggression in the European security zone for a generation and possibly forever. It is a precious legacy for our leaders and our people.

R.D. Hooker Jr. is an external senior fellow. at the Atlantic Council. Previously he was the dean of the NATO Defense College and a special assistant to the President of the United States, as well as the head of Europe and Russia in the National Security Council.

Ukraine Can Win

UkraineAlert 27/06/2022 Odesa resigns from Russia: Putin's war in Ukraine makes bitter enemies of old allies Oleksiy Goncharenko Putin has long claimed to be the pro-Russian champion of Ukrainians. However, the regions of Ukraine most closely associated with pro-Kremlin sentiment have also suffered the most from the current offensive.

UkraineAlert June 30, 2022 Goodwill Gestures and Denazification: Decoding Putin's Ukraine War Peter Dickinson's Dictionary The Atlantic Council's Peter Dickinson breaks down some key phrases from "goodwill gestures" to "denaturing" and "returning Russian lands." Putin's Ukraine war dictionary in plain English.

UkraineAlert 18.7.2022 Canada is accused of betraying Ukraine and helping Russia break sanctions Diane Francis Canada is accused of bowing to Kremlin blackmail after agreeing to sanctions imposed due to the invasion of Vladimir Putin on canceling Ukraine to get Russian gas supplies to Germany.

The views expressed in the UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Atlantic Council, its staff or supporters.

Vladimir Putin Cannot Win. But Ukraine Can.

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